G30 Topics in Economics (Macroeconometrics I)

Syllabus

1st April 17th Guidance
2nd 24th Macro Xu pp.1-15. The mode, introducing heuristics in forecasting output, heuristics and selection mechanism in forecasting inflation, solving the model
3rd May 1st Nonlinear Bala pp.1-15. Concepts, models, and definitions
4th 15th Macro Xu pp.16-28. Animal spirits, learning, and fogetfulness, conditions for animal spirits to arise, two different business cycle theories,
uncertainty and risk, credibility of inflation targeting and animal spirits
5th 22th Nonlinear Bala pp.16-27. Disequilibrium models, labour market models, exchange rates in a target zone, production theory
6th 29th Macro Xu pp.27-55. Credibility of inflation targeting and animal spirits, different types of inertia, animal spirits in the macroeconomic literature,
the transmission of a pisitive productivity, the transmission of interest rate shocks, fiscal policy multipliers
7th June 5th Nonlinear Bala pp.28-35. General considerations, switching regression models
8th 12th Macro Xu pp.49-64. The transmission of interest rate shocks, fiscal policy multipliers, transmission under perfect credibility of inflation target,
constructing trade-offs
9th 19th Nonlinear Teshima pp.35-43. Markov-switching regression models, smooth transition regression models, polynomial models
10th 26th Nonlinear Bala pp.43-51. Artificial neural network models, min-max models, nonlinear moving average models, bilinear models,
time-varying parameters and state space models, random coefficient and volatility models
11th July 3rd Macro Xu pp.64-83. Trade-offs in the New Keynesian rational expectations (DSGE) model, the merits of strict inflation targeting,
flexibility and neutrality of money, flexibility and stabilization, the model with only supply or demand shocks
12th 10th Nonlinear Bala pp.52-64. Autocovariance and spectrum, density, conditional mean, and conditional variance, dependence measures for nonlinear processes
13th 17th Macro Deng pp.79-96. The models with only supply or demand, trade-offs in the supply-shocks-only scenario, trade-offs in the demand-shocks-only scenario
introducing asset prices in the behavioral model, simulating the model
14th 24th Canceled
15th 31st Canceled